Historically, then, US immigration policy has reflected the nation’s social and economic concerns, justified or not, in response to specific demographic circumstances. Meanwhile, I have argued that many of the issues that proponents of increasing restrictions on immigration raise today do not correspond, in fact, to current realities. Furthermore, a set of data regularly overlooked seems to point rather to the need for accepting larger numbers of immigrants into the country than we currently do.

First, the inter-generational imbalance between the Baby Boomers and the Millennials indicates a looming need to supplement the work force with significant numbers of immigrant workers.  At the point of its greatest involvement in the labor force (1997), Boomers numbered 66 million. According to Census Bureau projections, the Millennial population will number 75 million at its peak so that an unrealistic 88% of Millennials would have to be employed in order to replace retiring Boomers. (See pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/11/millennials-largest-generation-us-labor-force/.)

Second, this new ratio between Boomers and Millennials reflects a broader demographic shift.  In 2016, those 65 years old or older accounted for 15% of the total population. Projections suggest that by 2060, the 65+ age bracket will represent 23% of the population, nearly doubling in raw numbers. The 2030’s will see a number of demographic turning-points.  By 2030, all of the Boomers will be over 65; by 2035, the elderly will outnumber children for the first time in US history; and, sometime in the 2030’s, population increase by immigration (even if rates remain unchanged from current policy) will outpace natural growth (net births-deaths).  (www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p25-1141.pdf)

Third, although the problems associated with declining natural population growth and an aging demographic will reach an apex in just over a decade, their effects are already surfacing.  According to data released recently by the US Department of Labor, the US economy had 7.6 million unfilled jobs but only 6.5 million available workers at the end of January, 2019, the eleventh straight month of such a labor shortage. Not surprisingly, as suggested above, the greater shortages are in manual labor and service jobs such as home health care (remember the aging Baby Boomers) and hospitality workers, jobs that have often gone to low-skilled immigrants. (www.vox.com/2019/3/18/18270916/labor-shortage-workers-us)

The consequences for the US economy of an aging population combined with labor shortages are difficult to predict in detail and, especially, in degree of magnitude, but at least three areas seem certain to experience the negative effects.  Since Social Security depends on a younger work force paying into the system to support the older retirees, shrinkage in the former accompanied by the growth of the latter constitutes the single greatest threat to the solvency of Social Security. Adjustments to immigration policy that would encourage immigration in numbers sufficient to maintain the age balance in the population seem only to be common sense.  Furthermore, since  statistics suggest that immigrants already fill a large percentage of the economy’s labor intensive, low-skilled jobs, such as farm-worker and construction laborer, any proportional decrease in the immigrant work force will likely create labor shortages.  In turn, these shortages would increase the cost of goods and services like tomatoes and hotel rooms, and exert significant inflationary pressures.  Finally, however, the consequence most terrifying to contemplate involves the potential harsh impact on elder care. Who will be the caregivers, the CNA’s, and the technicians in 2030 when I am 73?

To be continued